Economics

Thoughts on COVID-19

I’ve been a part of enough things in my life that eventually became news stories to see a pattern. Whatever is reported is either an exaggeration, a partial truth or an outright misrepresentation of what actually took place.

Rarely is a dispassionate account of the truth rendered.

As a result, I’m skeptical of many things I read. I understand the forces that are at work in the media. The money, the ratings and the ultimate goal of eyeballs and clicks get in the way of the effective distribution of important information. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s a misalignment of incentives. The result is that we should remain healthy skeptics when consuming information.

For many, the appeal of President Trump has been his willingness to challenge what experts, the media or anyone, frankly, is saying. The uncomfortable truth for many of us is that so much of what circulates in our modern information stream is not entirely true or skewed by spin. And so if one decides to “call bullshit” on everything, one has a very good chance at being right quite often.

President Trump has made it a standing policy to call bullshit on everything that doesn’t come from him or that doesn’t align with administration policy. Based on the patterns I just described, he’s often right.

The risk has never been accuracy with this approach. The risk is a loss of confidence in the institutions we need to take action when something eventually isn’t bullshit.

The global COVID19 outbreak is not bullshit. It is real. And it is shutting the world down in front of our eyes. The claims that this is just the flu are not real. Even it it were, doubling a flu outbreak and increasing the mortality rate would still overwhelm our current care infrastructure. Pointing out that it’s just the old and sick that will die isn’t helpful either. We will not simply sit back and let everyone of us who isn’t completely young and healthy die. Along the way, we will shut down daily life and the modern global economy to avoid that end.

Does anyone honestly believe that China is prone to overreact to save some lives? The state that brought you a famine that starved millions to death and a Cultural Revolution that exterminated an entire class of intellectuals shut down the country to keep the virus from spreading. We should take notice. This is not a drill.

There is good news though. Because for once, we actually have some control over our fates.

In a world where we seem powerless against the march of never-ending wars, environmental catastrophe and the erosion of social cohesion, this pandemic gives us an opportunity. This virus needs us to live. We have domain over its host.

For once, we are in control. And we can be heroes.

There are things that spread viruses faster. We know what they are. We have already stopped doing many of them. There are things that impede progress of spread. We should do them. Limiting public gatherings, taking sick days, social distancing, self-quarantining and washing hands are all things that slow the spread of the virus.

Those are the things we can do as individuals. But there’s more. This is an opportunity to address some things.

It’s probably time to have legislation that ensures that the people who serve our food get paid sick leave. Think about that. The people handing you your food all feel like they have to work through being sick. Coronavirus or not, I’d rather that end. Trader Joe’s changed their policy on this immediately. Heroes.

It’s probably time to figure out how more roles can work remote. It’s probably time to figure out how employers handle parents that have to stay home to care for kids whose schools are closed. It’s probably time to identify a national response plan for any epidemic. What buildings get used for overflow. What labs can be used for emergency testing. What funding can be immediately released.

I thought this was all already in place. It’s not.

Today the New York Times reported that we had testing capacity in Seattle weeks ago. The lab there wasn’t allowed to test because of a standing CDC policy. Two dozen people in Washington state are dead. It’s easy to Monday morning quarterback and lay blame. But it’s also easy to stand up and say that for the next six months, all policies prohibiting testing are waved.

One great question this pandemic may bring us closer to answering is this:

How do we pandemic proof our globally integrated economy?

The real risk that we have is that we can’t save lives right now without tanking the economy. What would need to be true in order for that not to be the case?

The United States of America has been at war nearly my entire adult life. Aside from the days and weeks after 9/11, nothing the war has had to offer has impacted Americans the way the COVID-19 outbreak already has. Understanding the risk and what to do going forward should be a national policy issue second to nothing.

The goal is simple. Short Term: Take positive action to slow the spread of the virus to a rate that allows our medical response to keep pace with it. If we don’t, medical facilities will get overwhelmed, people won’t get treatment and our ability to respond to other everyday medical issues will be limited. Longer Term: Drive institutional change that makes us more resilient to future outbreaks.

I’ve worked in risk my entire professional life. The regrets I have from taking actions against things that didn’t materialized into catastrophe are zero. The regrets I have from not taking action when it could have mattered are substantial. Moreover, I have no idea what catastrophes were avoided by small actions early on in the problem. I’ll never know. And I don’t regret that either.

In the world of the material, beyond politics and media swirl, when we work to solve these sorts of existential issues, no one claims we’re overreacting. The word panic doesn’t even wander into the room. Instead, the tone is one of a requirement to be stewards of the resources we’ve been trusted with to carry out the responsibilities we have to those that count on us.

No one calls bullshit. Because it’s not bullshit.

We have a window here. But it’s going to close. If it does, the outcomes won’t be disaster movie extinction. It will be thousands of lives lost, the loss of effectiveness of our current medical care infrastructure and eventually the catastrophic shut down of the domestic and global economy.

That’s one potential outcome. The other is a coordinated and committed effort to doing what we can, while we can to avoid it. So, before you hit share on the witty, people all need to calm down meme, ask yourself this.

What’s the cost of being wrong about that?

The math on this one is clear. And we’re on the clock. This is our chance to be heroes.

Categories: Economics

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3 replies »

  1. FYI, I had a really bad cold for 10 days, and although I live in Everett, WA, where the first fatality occurred, and i am over 60 with autoimmune, I could not get tested fir the virus, despite calling theHealth Dept, and going through my doctor. Until actual test kits are made available to the general public, we are severely undercounting the number of cases. BTW, please watch the actual footageof President Trump saying that the Democratic reaction to the virus (condemning him for travel restrictions, etc, while they were busy with impeachment) was whathe called a hoax, not the actual virus crisis. This has been wrongly reported ad infinitum, so don’t get caught up in that.

  2. This: “I thought this was all already in place. It’s not.”

    Last year here in Seattle we lost nearly a full month of school due to snow. Let’s face it, in Seattle we don’t typically get much snow, and we don’t have the means to clear it when it occurs. This makes sense from a resource and economic perspective. Having said that, and being in Ops myself, one would have thought that someone would’ve said: “Hey we need to plan for something like this since it could happen again.” And, lo and behold, it has happened again. This time with a virus, not snow.

    Aside from nominally having one laptop per kid and some idea of what systems they could use to disseminate the lessons, there was no other homework done. Oh, and what planning they did do did not at all take into account Special Needs kids, IEPs and so on. So, they closed the schools in haste, took two full days of absolutely no education to try to figure it out ad hoc and have been struggling this week to get it up and running for basically anyone. Sadly, the teachers get the brunt of it (especially the SpEd teachers) due to the administration’s failings.

    Meanwhile, my two-income household is struggling to attend to our jobs which are still there, get our daughter to preschool which is NOT canceled, get our son with autism to his external therapies and also attend to his assigned lessons across FSA class, Gen Ed, Speech, OT and PE…all without killing each other in the process. Limited daycare options present when you have a special needs kid, as you know. The struggle is absolutely real and could’ve gone so much more smoothly save for the joint failures of both imagination and planning.

    As for the kids not in school? They are here hanging out together at the Starbucks or playing video games, certainly not doing any work. Or, many are planning to join the YMCA daycares at some of the closed schools, where they will have up to 50 kids PLUS the support staff all together in close social distance. Other families are literally “going to Hawaii” to work remotely. Through airports. On an airplane. Ironic.

  3. If the administration was occupied by a Democrat President, the media.would react is a far more positive way. Optimism would be in the news everyday. Instead people are pointing the blame finger. Arent we smarter than that?